Preakness picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers Brad Free and Dan Illman.
2024 Preakness Stakes (Race 13)
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Track: Pimlico
Post time: 7:01 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC
Preakness field
| Post | Horse | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mugatu | 20-1 |
| 2 | Uncle Heavy | 20-1 |
| 3 | Catching Freedom | 6-1 |
| 4 | Muth | SCR |
| 5 | Mystik Dan | 5-2 |
| 6 | Seize the Grey | 15-1 |
| 7 | Just Steel | 15-1 |
| 8 | Tuscan Gold | 8-1 |
| 9 | Imagination | 6-1 |
:: Get ready for the Preakness with DRF past performances, picks, and betting strategies!
Brad Free
1. Just Steel
2. Catching Freedom
3. Tuscan Gold
4. Imagination
Muth scratched from the Preakness with a fever. The defection of the front-running/pace-pressing early favorite softens the pace scenario and benefits an upset candidate trying to rebound from an also-ran performance in the Kentucky Derby.
Bettors who considered JUST STEEL “live” in the Derby – he finished 17th – get another shot at a price. Runner-up to Muth in the Arkansas Derby, Just Steel becomes the Preakness top-choice upset candidate despite his Kentucky Derby finish.
The race flow was against Just Steel, who wilted along with every other forwardly placed runner in the Derby. But the Preakness could unfold at an easier tempo, particularly with the defection of Muth. Just Steel may tuck into a cozy trip positioned just off easier fractions in a race with only one true front-runner. The likelihood of slower splits opens the possibility Just Steel will outrun his price, similar to his high-odds runner-up finish two starts back in the Arkansas Derby.
CATCHING FREEDOM, a perfect-trip fourth in the Kentucky Derby, will rally. Each start by Catching Freedom was better than the start before. The challenge for Catching Freedom is pace. He is a deep closer who would benefit by a contested pace. That might not happen.
TUSCAN GOLD has the same pattern as two previous Chad Brown-trained Preakness winners – fourth career start after skipping the Derby. Tuscan Gold finished third to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby, he was off since, and skipped a stakes last week to take a shot in the Preakness. An improving colt with a positive trainer angle, Tuscan Gold will fire. He needs another forward move to win.
IMAGINATION inherits the role as most likely Preakness pacesetter with the defection of stablemate Muth. While the potential for a front-running trip necessitates respect, Imagination might still be suspect. He finished second to Stronghold in the Santa Anita Derby; Stronghold subsequently finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby.
Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby though he was third best. He saved ground from start to finish under a masterful ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. while the two-three finishers were trip-compromised. A longshot in the Derby, Mystik Dan will not be overlooked by bettors in the Preakness. He is the new favorite. The push-button speed of Mystik Dan allows him to establish position. He is the only Preakness starter to earn a triple-digit Beyer; he has done it twice. The uncertainties facing Mystik Dan are wheeling back two weeks after a huge effort and low odds.
Seize the Grey stretches out from a one-turn mile and could influence the pace. As for Uncle Heavy, his best races are on wet tracks. Mugatu looks overmatched.
Dan Illman
1. Catching Freedom
2. Mystik Dan
3. Tuscan Gold
4. Imagination
CATCHING FREEDOM ran well for fourth in the Derby, but overall had a good trip. He raced in between behind that fast pace, followed Mystik Dan into the stretch, and then finished with interest while behind rivals. He’s beaten Mystik Dan in the past, however, and might show a bit more tactical speed in this shorter field. Expecting him to kick on late for a barn that went six for its last 20 (30 percent, $2.01 return on investment) with horses returning in two weeks or less.
Although MYSTIK DAN did receive a perfect trip and ride when capturing the Derby, he doesn’t get enough credit for staying close to those fast fractions and still finishing with determination. Tracking from the pocket, he bulled his way through at the quarter pole while hopping to his right lead and then dug down to fend off the closers. He has the tactical speed that leads to good trips and is an obvious danger. The Kenny McPeek barn has gone three for its last 13 (23 percent, $2.12 ROI) with last-out winners returning on dirt.
Trainer Chad Brown’s two Preakness winners were both fourth-time starters that lost their final prep and skipped the Kentucky Derby to concentrate on this race. TUSCAN GOLD fits that pattern snugly and has all the upside potential in the world after finishing a good third behind the top pick in the Louisiana Derby, contested over this distance. Expecting him to take back and make one strong run from the back of the pack for a barn that went three for its last 13 (23 percent, $2.68 ROI) with horses racing the third time after layoffs between two and four months.
IMAGINATION looks like the speed of the race for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Frankie Dettori. He finished ahead of two next-out winners when necked in the Santa Anita Derby, and the fifth-place finisher flattered that performance by winning the Lazaro Barrera Stakes by seven lengths with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. He is very dangerous if allowed to shake loose on soft fractions.
